HOW TO CREATE SUCCESSFUL GOODS ONLY
Why only a few percent of all novelties become successful on the market now.
Resume.
While creating novelties it seems very reasonable to improve the goods first in that direction which has already brought success. But there is an unexpected trap on such way. Perhaps, it is one of the main reasons why only a few percent of all novelties are successful on the market now.
The proposed article explains what this trap is, how to avoid it and how to create new successful goods much more effectively.
Shortly: all goods develop by cycles. Each cycle consists of four stages. During each cycle, the goods develop in the limits of the same working principle. In each cycle, each following stage is a result of qualitative improvement of the previous stage, but just the fourth stage always becomes especially successful. It always happens by the one and the same rule - so we can use this rule as a special algorithm. Practically all kinds of commercial goods, any their parts, technologies, and so on may be turned into more profitable ones by the proposed algorithm. The fifth stage always fails. It is one of the main reasons why some hopeful novelties can not be profitable on the market.
§1. OBJECTS THAT FORMING GROUPS CONSISTING OF FOUR ELEMENTS
Many objects of Nature make up groups consisting of certain number of elements.
For example, according to the law of duality practically every thing of our world has the opposite one. It is possible to tell, that each such object together with opposite one forms the group consisting of TWO elements.
Many objects naturally form the groups consisting of THREE elements. There is even a proverb «the God loves the Trinity».
Experience shows that is most extensive (both by quantity and on a stage) a class of objects that form groups each of which contains FOUR elements.
Here examples of such groups:
- Four kinds of chemical elements: s-, p-, d-, and f- elements.
- Four types of fundamental physical interaction: electromagnetism, gravitation, strong and weak interactions.
- Four quantum numbers: principal n, azimuthal l, magnetic m, and spin s.
- Four types of radioactive disintegration: alpha, beta, gamma and beta + disintegration.
For a long time we thought that we lived in three-dimensional space, but the theory of relativity had shown that time and space must be considered together forming a four-dimensional continuum.
There are four kinds of the bases of deoxyribonucleic acids (DNA).
There are four kinds of casein in milk.
Human tongue perceives four kinds of taste: sweet, sour, bitter and salty.
Four kinds of burns are known: thermal, chemical, electric and radiating. In turn, the thermal burn has four degrees.
Many animals have four kinds - for example, Poodles, the Belgian sheep-dogs, smoky leopards, pitchfork-shape horn antelopes, Siamese cats, the Toulouse geese, etc.
Very much many rather insignificant objects have four kinds too. For example, there are four kinds of the additions for sliming, four kinds of truncheons, four ways to tie one's necktie, four kinds of embroidery, four kinds of Vermouths and Champagne wines, etc.
It is possible to look at the same object of the Nature from many different points of view. The number of such points is limited by nothing. Looking at the same object from different points of view, we can see different groups consisting of four elements.
For example, the same people may be divided into four kinds by several ways (proceeding from different points of view):
- By race: white, yellow, black and red.
- By color of hair: blonde-haired people, brown-haired, brunettes and red.
- By temperament: choleric, melancholic, phlegmatic and sanguine persons.
- By groups of blood: people with the first, second, third and fourth groups of blood, etc.
Four kinds of some objects exist in the Nature constantly. It means that they exist at once all simultaneously, and we can not define, which kind appeared earlier, and which - later. For example, four kinds of chemical elements, four types of fundamental physical interaction, etc. exist and existed in the Nature always. Let us call such objects «natural objects».
It is surprising, but very many goods, services, technologies, projects and other objects created as a result of conscious human activity, form groups consist of four elements too (examples will be considered below). Let us call such objects «man-made objects».
Man-made objects differ essentially from natural ones. Four kinds of man-made objects appear strictly consistently, one after another. Every time firstly a first kind of each such object (goods, service, and so on) appears. Then a second kind appears, only after that the third kind comes, and finally the fourth kind appears.
Every time each subsequent kind appears from the previous one as a result of qualitative spasmodic improvement of the object. That is why it is naturally to call the kinds of each object as «stages of development» or shortly «stages».
The most important moment: in every group during all four stages the same working principle operates.
The following examples show how it occurs.
Example 1.
First mechanical clock was stationary with a shaking pendulum (its pendulum was reeling from side to side). Using a revolving (rotating) pendulum allowed to create a first table-clock (it was the second stage - one could move it from one place to another) and pocket watch (the third stage - one could carry it with him). Table-clock and pocket watch represent two separate stages because in English the first type refers to «clock», and the second - to «watch».
But wrist watch (the fourth stage) became the most comfortable and convenient.
Work of all mechanical clocks and watches is based on the same principle - at small amplitudes, the period of fluctuation of a mechanical pendulum remains practically constant.
There are other types of clocks: sandglass, sundial etc. However, their work is based on other principles.
Example 2.
There are many ways for correcting eyesight defects - spectacles, contact lenses, special ophthalmologic operations etc. Different principles are used in every of these cases.
Let us choose the principle: «changing direction of light beams on some distance out of eyes with optical lenses». In this case, we have spectacles and we can consider four stages of development of this device.
At first it was simple lens (monocle) - first stage, then lorgnette (two lenses with a special handle) - second stage. After that pince-nez was invented. You should not hold it with your hand (third stage). Only after that modern spectacles appeared - fourth stage. All these devices used the same (mentioned above) principle.
Contact lenses use the other principle - there is no distance between such lenses and eyes. It means there must be a separate group of four stages for contact lenses.
It is interesting to note when pocket watch turned into wristwatch the mechanism of the device formally was not changed at all. The improvement was only in adding a wrist belt (or bracelet), which placed out of the mechanism, but close by it. And what is important: wrist belt has not any influence the main function of watch. Just like that pince-nez turned into spectacles as a result of adding two special holders (near ears) which also have not any influence directions of light beams
Wrist belt is simpler and cheaper than watch itself, but adding wrist belts changed situation on the market cardinally - nobody uses pocket watches now. Just like that, spectacles 'holders (near ears) are simpler and cheaper than spectacles. However, nobody uses pince-nez now.
It is no mere chance.
These and considered below examples show that the following ten rules (laws) are true for all man-made objects that have four stages of development.
(1)
During all four stages the same working principle operates. In other words: we can see all four stages of development from the same points of view.
(2)
Even for the same object, we can choose many different working principles. The number of such principles is not limited by anything.
(3)
Four stages united by one working principle, form one cycle of development of this object. After finishing of one cycle, the next cycle begins. It has four stages too, but during new cycle, other (higher) working principle operates.
(4)
The first stage of each cycle is the most simple and primitive. It only shows an opportunity of satisfaction of some need by this or other way (within the limits of the same principle).
(5)
In any cycle, each subsequent stage turns out from previous by qualitative, cardinal improvement of object (within the limits of the same principles).
(6)
When the object turns from the third stage of development to the fourth one it practically does not change. In other words, the improvement has no influence on the main function of the object directly.
(7)
The improvement consists in adding to the object (near outside or in any special place) relatively simple (in comparison with the object) other unit or an element only.
(8)
The basic purpose (function) of the added unit or element does not coincide with the basic purpose (function) of the object.
(9)
Because of such addition, the object reaches the fourth stage of development and becomes as effective as it is possible within the limits of the used principle. For example, applying sail vessels by a keel allowed them to sail against wind (as tack did). Note: the keel is located outside of the vessel (along its bottom) and it itself does not improve its rapidity or buoyancy.
The fourth stage of commercial good presses out from the market the third stage ones (see spectacles and wristwatches) very quickly.
(10)
Any attempts to improve the object which has already reached the fourth stage (within the limits of this «old» principle) never happen successful. In other words, the fifth stage of development of object can not be effective (see Examples 21 and 22).
The following Examples confirm these items.
§ 2. STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT OF ARBALEST AND ITS PARTS
Example 3.
Let us choose a principle: a weapon (fighting, hunting or sports)
for missile arrows by bowstring due to energy of the bent arch. In this case both bows and arbalests fall under such point of view.
The first stage.
The first stage of development of such devices is the ordinary bow. The first stage is always the most primitive - it only shows an opportunity of solving of some problem by the certain way (within the limits of some principle).
The second stage.
The simple bow allows missile arrows. But if, for example, a hunter armed by a bow, will notice a hare, while the person takes out an arrow, draws the bow and aims, the hare can escape. On the other hand, a person can not hunt with the bow in draw position all day long.
However, arranging the bow on a special support allow to engage drawn bowstring by a trigger. Now one can hold the bowstring in draw position all time and detent the trigger when he wants to shoot at hare. In this case, the hunter draws the bowstring manually. Now it is an elementary arbalest because it already has a detent.
It is a qualitative improvement because now one can shoot much more quickly, than by a usual bow. There is one more advantage: the hunter does not any efforts for drawing the bowstring when he aims, so he can look around more attentively and aim more effectively.
The third stage.
Using special mechanical devices for draw bowstring increased power and range of arbalests.
The fourth stage.
When one shot on close distance he could learn quickly how to hold bow or arbalest. So one can hit in hare successfully without any rear sight. But such rear sights became necessary for range arbalests.
Just increasing range of arbalests made using rear sights actual.
Note: rear sight itself does not influence on power of arbalest, on direction of arrow flight etc. However, using this simple device of other functional purpose made arbalests as effective as it did possible within chosen principle. Here the best proof: there was no principal improvement of arbalests during a few last centuries.
In common, a weapon for missile arrows by bowstring due to energy of the bent arch contains following parts:
1. a bent arch with a bowstring,
2. a detent,
3. a device for draw bowstring (tension devices),
4. a rear sight,
(And arrow or bolt itself).
It is surprising that each of these parts passed four stages of development (see Examples below). Moreover, arbalest itself is one of four kinds of thrust weapon (see Example 9). Thrust weapon is one of four kinds of cold steel weapon (see Example 10). But the list does not come to the end here! Cold steel weapon with firearms are one of four kinds of weapons on the whole (see STRUCTURE 4X2 at
https://www.inauka.ru/blogs/article52292.html)
Example 4.
Four stages of development of a bent arch.
The first stage.
Simple flexible bough used as a bow. It is most primitive stage.
The second stage.
Yew-tree was most appropriate for bow. The well-known English bow was cut out from a yew so that it consisted of two layers of wood with different properties. External side of such bow was better for stretching, and internal was better for compression.
The third stage.
Composite (compound) bow.
In a composite bow, an external surface was made from material, capable to bear a greater tension than wood. More often sinews of animals are used. They could bear a tension four times more than the most suitable tree.
For internal side was used material working on compression better than wood. Often they used bullhorn.
Such bow was simple in manufacturing, bears a greater tension, and could be any length.
The fourth stage.
Using inorganic material. experts consider occurrence of a steel bow in the Middle Ages was zenith in development of an arbalest design. Steel bow possessed such flexibility that any of organic materials could not provide.
Example 5.
Four stages of development of detents.
Arbalest was supplied with a trigger that held the drawn bowstring. One should shift the trigger when shoot. However, the trigger tests great mechanical load. Therefore, one should overcome great force of friction to shift such trigger.
The second stage.
Using various levers allowed reducing the force of friction.
The third stage.
In first two stages, the trigger made only back and forth motion. At the third stage, the bone washer capable to make rotary movement began to be used. It was named «nut» (because it had similar shape). In combination with levers «nut» turned out so successful that it was used until present time (for example in sports and hunting arbalests).
The fourth stage.
It is very interesting situation: on the one hand, «nut» had already reached the top of perfection, and on the other hand - according to the proposed conception always should be the most effective forth stage which turns out from the third stage by addition «a simple unit of other functional purpose».
Approximately in 1500 emperor Maximilian The First was nearly killed because of unexpected detent of an arrow. He ordered to work out a safety device preventing casual detent of an arrow. After that, all kinds of weapons are supplied with safety locks, not only arbalests.
This Example demonstrates brightly that by this or another way «simple unit of other functional purpose» is always added to the object that reached the third stage of development.
Example 6.
Tension devices.
The first stage.
This stage should be characterized by that the tension of a bowstring is made not manually, but by adaptations, perhaps very simple.
Really, at manual drawing the arbalest bowstring stuck fingers, and it limited force of a tension. Using very simple hooks has allowed using force of hands as much as possible.
The second stage
In XIV century there was a tension hook that fastened to a belt of arbalest man. For drawing bowstring, the arbalest man put his leg into stirrup, then he squatted, engaged a bowstring for a hook and standing erect, drew a bowstring. At application of such tension device the most powerful muscles of the person - muscles of back and legs were involved.
The third stage.
Application of the lever has allowed increasing tension force in some times more. The tension named «goat's leg» was most popular. it was the iron lever of the complex form rested in two ledges. At turn of the lever, when tension force increased, the radius of rotation of the lever decreased. It was very effective (it is possible even to tell - ingenious) design.
The fourth stage.
German winch - rack with two claws in the iron case with a reducer. Other variant - the English winch had up to four blocks. Using German or English winches allowed receiving any force of a tension without any limit.
Example 7.
Four stages of development of a sight.
As a rear sight used
A device now named «an open mechanical rear sight« was used in arbalests.
It is interesting to note, that devices for a missile of arrows have already passed «peak of the popularity» long ago. It means that all four stages of development arbalests already passed long ago, but last stages of the open mechanical sight have appeared rather recently.
At shooting from ordinary bows, ancient soldiers and hunters «aimed». However, it was simply intuitive knowledge how to hold a bow to hit the mark. Marksmanship was a result of many years of persistent exercises. Application of special aim devices allowed them to learn very quickly to hit the mark.
The first stage.
It was simply «front sight» and a rod with slit. An ordinary bead used as «front sight» in arbalests.
The second stage - a rod was made mobile, it allowed to aim equally effectively at shooting as on close, and a long distance (adjusted for action of terrestrial gravitation). In particular, just such sight supplies modern rifles.
The third stage- an optical sight using.
The fourth stage improvement was adding outside a unit of other functional purpose - the laser. The laser beam itself does not increase power of the weapon, but allow knowing beforehand where an arrow or abullet will get.
Now arbalests are not applied as fighting weapon any more (except some special cases). However, they used for hunting until now widely.
Many modern hunting arbalests use optical rear sights. Sometimes laser-laying device are used. It shows that four stages of development of the object and its parts do not always coincide on time.
Example 8.
Four stages of development of an arrowhead.
The first stage.
This is a simple (bullet shape) arrowhead. It is simplest and most primitive stage.
The second stage.
This is a triangular arrowhead. Wounds inflicted with arrowhead are wider, cause vomiting bleeding, and close up badly. Such wounds are more dangerous.
The third stage.
This is a thorn shape arrowhead. Such arrow operated as a fishhook - it entered into tissue rather easily, but it was impossible to pull it out. The arrow with such arrowhead should be cut out.
The fourth stage.
Arrowheads of arrows processed specially prepared poison. In opinion of ancient writers, the Scythian poisoned arrows brought immediate death even from an easy touch.
Last example very evidently shows, that the fourth stage of any object development always turns out by addition to that is already reached, relatively simple unit or an element of other functional purpose.
There were invented very many different kinds of arrowheads for arrows. Only four listed above kinds of them were used widely.
Therefore, it is very likely that only four kinds (or stage of development) of any object may be admitted by the market. Moreover, the fourth stage always becomes the most effective (within the limits of the used principle).
Arbalest is a cold missile weapon of pricking action.
In ancient times, there were many kinds of the missile weapon. However, if we choose a principle (point of view): «the pricking missile weapon» we can retrace the following four stages of the development of this weapon. Thus, bows and arbalests (considered in the Example 3) are one of these stages.
Example 9.
The pricking missile weapon.
The first stage is always the most primitive one. Perhaps, an ancient hunter had noticed that the thrown stick (having got the sharp end) had hit an animal. Note: the stick should be heavy enough because the light stick could not wound an animal seriously.
The second stage.
It is a heavy stick with a special tip (a missile javelin).
The third stage.
On hunting seldom happens so, that the animal is wounded by the first javelin thrown in it. Therefore, the hunter should carry at least some heavy javelins always with him (or each time find the thrown javelin and use it again). Both cases are inconvenient.
The following solution was found.
If to make a tip of a javelin sharp enough the weight and the sizes of it may be reduced essentially (without damage of its fighting qualities). So dart was invented. After that, hunters and soldiers could carry a plenty of light darts with them.
The fourth stage.
One took a twig, bent it and attached a soft pellicle of this twig itself to the ends (of the twig). After that, one could notice that darts might be thrown with it more effectively than by hand. So the first bow was invented. As you see, «the simple unit of other functional purpose» was added to dart in this case too. Really, a bent twig with a pellicle is simpler than carefully sharpen tip of dart.
Certainly, it is possible to choose any other point of view (working principle). The received results may be different, but will be correct too.
For example, in the Example 19 the javelin will be considered as simply pricking (not missile) weapon. Here are four stages of development too, and the fourth one (the most effective) is received by addition of «simple unit of other functional purpose». In this case, it is a plume of horsehair.
Example 10.
Four versions of a cold steel.
As it was mentioned in the Example 3, the pricking weapon, in turn, is one of four kinds of a cold steel. Really, the cold steel is subdivided on:
- Blow action (for example, a cudgel),
- Pricking (a javelin),
- Cutting (as an axe) and
- Cutting (as a knife).
(In addition, their combinations are possible, of cause).
As illustration, let us consider evolution of development of a cold steel of blow action.
Example 11.
The first stage is always the simplest and most primitive. Here it is simply a gripped stone. Impact turns out stronger, than simply by fist. However, there is real danger to damage own fingers if they will appear casually between a stone and a surface on which blow is struck.
A brass knuckles (a knuckle-duster) is the second stage. One can not damage the fingers in this case.
A cudgel is the third stage. An arm of the lever increases, that is why impact turns out much more strongly.
The fourth stage is a flail («morning star» - by the German version). The flexible element between the cudgel and its end is added. As you see, it is adding «a simple unit of other functional purpose». This stage is top of development of a cold steel of blow action.
3. FOUR-STAGE CYCLES OF
DEVELOPMENT OF MAN-MADE OBJECTS.
Examples 12 - 18 (you can see them below) show, that when object achieves the fourth stage of development, the previous cycle (that use one working principle) is completed. However, the progress does not stop. After that, the following (next) cycle begins. It has four stages too, but now other (higher) working principle covers all new stages. After finishing this second cycle, the third one begins, and so on.
The history of a human society may be considered according to a material that is mainly used for manufacturing tools and weapon.
From the point of view, it is possible to allocate three periods (three cycles) of development: the Stone Age, the Bronze Age, and the Iron Age.
The period when stone was used as such material, was named as Stone Age. This period consists of four stages qualitatively differing from each other.
Example 12 - the Stone Age.
The first stage.
One took a stone and used it for example for cracking a nut. It is the most primitive stage when an accidentally found stone is used.
The second stage.
One noticed that using a stone with sharp ledge was more effectively for example for digging up of roots.
The third stage.
It is difficult to find a stone that simultaneously has sharp ledge and which is convenient for holding in one's hand. That is why one should shape an appropriate stone specially. A primitive cutting tool may be made by this way.
The fourth stage.
If attach this tool to a stick, a primitive axe will turn out. Impact of such axe is more (in several times) stronger. As you see, a stick («simple unit of other functional purpose») was added to the cutting tool at the fourth stage and the tool became most effective.
Here it is another variant.
If you add rope or cord, it will be not hand tool (that one has in his hand constantly), but missile weapon - a sling. Just as impact by stone axe is stronger than impact by a simple dripped stone, in the same way one can throw a stone farther by a sling than simply by hand.
After four stage of one cycle has come to the end, the following four-stage cycle begins. During all next cycle new working principle (as a rule, «higher» one) operates.
Example 13 - The Bronze Age.
It is a new, next cycle, which based on other principle.
Bronze is an alloy of copper with tin. For a long time this alloy played so important role, that the whole epoch of human history was named as «The Bronze Age».
The first stage.
Copper is one of several metals, which exist in the Nature in a native (virgin) kind. Using pieces of native copper in raw state as tools or weapon is the first stage.
The first stage is the most primitive always (within the limits of the chosen principle). It only shows a basic opportunity of satisfaction of any human need in the certain way. When one had found a piece of native copper he could notice that cracking nuts with it more effectively, than with a stone. Really, specific gravity of copper is a few times more and, unlike stones, copper is not crumbling during use.
The second stage.
Of cause, very seldom pieces of native metals have forms and sizes convenient for practical use. It is logical to assume, that ancient people had tried to apply experience of the Stone Age. We can suppose they struck with stone on pieces of copper to get them necessary forms. Copper is malleable metal. That is why very likely that this «cold smithery» was successful.
So forming native copper by cold smithery is the second stage.
The third stage.
Ancient people might notice that copper fused by heating. This discovery allowed them to make tools and weapons of the necessary sizes and forms by melting. It is much more quickly, easier and more effectively, than cold smithery.
The fourth stage.
It turns out by the standard way: they should add some simple thing from other area to what they already get at the third stage.
In this case, other chemical element - tin -was used as «some simple thing».
Tin is softer than copper, the fusion temperature (232 degrees on Celsius) is much less than fusion temperature of copper (1083 degrees). Therefore, the added element really is easier than the initial object (copper).
The alloy of copper with tin (bronze) is much more practical than copper itself. Bronze tools, weapons and so on have greater stability against corrosion, elasticity, hardness, acuteness of blade or edge. Besides that, fusion temperature of bronze is lower than copper's one, and bronze fills mould better.
Example 14 - the Iron Age.
Now more than 90 per cent of all metal things are made from iron. All four stages are covered by the principle «ferrous metallurgy». At first people used simple iron (the first stage), then cast-iron (the second stage), and only after that we began use steel (the third stage).
As usual, the fourth stage has turned out from the third stage: some other chemical elements (Cr, Ni, Mo, W, V, Ti, Nb, Zr, Co, etc.) have added to steel. Such alloyed steels have the best properties.
Following Examples are devoted to cycles of development of light sources.
Example 15.
Fire as a light source.
A stationary bonfire is the simplest light source. Certainly, it is the least convenient. But it proves, that light can be received by means of fire.
A torch is the second stage of development of such source. Certainly, it burns not long, but it can be moved in space. As you see, it is qualitative advantage.
We can consider a candle, an oil or a gas lantern as the third stage In these light sources the combustible substance moves in a zone of burning through a wick (owing to capillarity) or (combustible gas) through a special tube. Process of burning can be supported much longer.
The fourth stage is a lantern in which the flame is located inside of a transparent flask (as in a modern kerosene lamp). In such lamp, the flame does not smoke, and process of burning occurs most effectively.
As you can see, concerning simple unit of other functional purpose - a transparent flask - was added again. Owing to it the light source has reached such perfection what only is possible within the limits of a principle «using fire as a light source».
We can look at the development of fire used light sources from other point of view too. As a working principle, it is possible to take, for example, fluidity of combustible substance.
Example 16.
Light sources, which use different kinds (degrees) of fluidity of a combustible substance.
The first stage is using firm combustible substance (splinter or burning wood in a bonfire).
A candle is the second stage. During storage, a burnt material (beeswax or paraffin) is solid, and during burning a candle, it becomes fluid (liquid).
An oil lantern and a modern kerosene lamp are the third stage. They use a combustible substance, which is in liquid state all time.
A gas lantern is the fourth stage. It uses gaseous combustible substance (the fluidity is maximal in this case).
Both points of view (both working principles) are correct. These cases show that every time within the limits of the same principle exactly four stages of development exist. Moreover, the fourth one is always the most effective. Really, as you remember, until electric lamps were invented, streets and avenues of European capitals had been shined with gas lanterns.
Artificial lighting can be received and by means of electricity. For example, electric arch gives very bright light. It is possible to track four stages in development of arc lamps.
Example 17.
Electric arch as a source of artificial lighting.
The first stage.
As early as 1802 Prof. Petrov proposed to use electric arch with it is dazzling bright light for the purposes of artificial lighting (illumination). The first stage always is the most primitive. It shows only a basic opportunity to solve some task by this way.
The second stage.
In the very first arc lanterns, electrodes have been located by «nose to nose» to each other and burnt out quickly enough. That is why they should be moved continually. Therefore, lanterns have to be supplied with the fixtures that allowed shifting electrodes manually as required.
The third stage.
Then many special regulators were worked out for shifting electrodes automatically (not manually). Mr. Arshro invented the most simple and convenient regulator.
The fourth stage.
In 1875 Russian Prof. Jablochkov offered the reliable and simple decision. He arranged coal electrodes in parallel, having divided their isolating layer (as you see, he added a simple element of other functional purpose). The invention made enormous success, and «Jablochkov's candle» or «Russian light» spread in all Europe widely.
Example 18.
Except considered above there is another way to use electricity for lighting. For example, it is possible to use a principle «filament of a conductor by electric current».
The first stage of such devices is simply conductor with electric current. It is known, if current increases up to the certain value, the conductor starts to shine. This is the first primitive stage. It only shows that light may be received by this way.
The second stage.
It is unpractical to make red-hot (or white-hot) all length of the conductor (all electric circuit). It is better to make red-hot only small special piece with greater electric resistance to which the current is brought on wires with rather low resistance.
The third stage.
On the one hand, the more strongly the proceeding current, the light is brighter. On the other hand, current increasing leads to more intensive oxidation of the red-hot piece. That is why this piece burns out more quickly.
This contradiction was solved by the following way: the red-hot piece was placed in a transparent flask with inert gas (or vacuum). It allowed avoiding oxidation of the piece and increasing a working resource of a lamp.
The fourth stage.
At the transition from the third stage to the fourth one, some unit of other functional purpose should be added to object.
Just it has happened in this case too: the lamp has been supplied by a cap and began to be used together with a socket (lamp-holder) as a united device. Just this four-stage improvement made filament lamp most successful on the market all over the world
The following two Examples especially brightly show, that the Nature is arranged so, that to make any man-made object as effective as possible (within in some working principle), one has to add a simple element of other functional purpose. It may occur by one way or another. Sometimes such addition seems casual but it occurs always.
Example 19.
Spear (lance), as pricking (not missile) weapon.
The first stage.
It is possible to assume, that the first spear appeared in Paleolithic epoch when the ancient hunter notice, that it is possible to engage an animal not only by a lateral surface of a stick (as by a cudgel), but by its free end too . It is the very first stage of development of a spear, the most simple and the most primitive. As it is usual, it only shows principal opportunity of using a stick not only as cudgels, but also as pricking weapon (especially if the end of a stick was sharp casually).
The second stage.
Ancient hunters began to point the end of a stick specially to use it as pricking weapon more effectively.
The third stage.
The spear becomes mush more effective if one supply it with separate tip (point) of other firmer material. It is not important, what material is used (a bone, a stone, bronze, iron or even wood of other firmer sort). It is important, that the tip is made separately of the tip itself, and then fastens to the spear shaft. Spears can be the most different, but all of them fall under the point of view «a wooden shaft with the tip strengthened on its end».
The fourth stage.
It would seem, the spear could not be improved in the cardinal way further. However, experience shows, that the Nature is arranged so that by one way or another but the man-made object always has four stages of development. In addition, the fourth one turns out by addition to object a simple element of other functional purpose. After that the object becomes so effective, how much it only is possible within the limits of used principle. Often it seems that addition of such element is casual. Nevertheless, the analysis of numerous examples shows, that IT OCCURS ALWAYS.
It means that it is not coincidence, but it is law of the Nature. The considered example is very indicative in this respect.
Judge yourself.
During hunting or battle, blood from a wound of animal or enemy gets on shaft inevitably. The staff soiled in blood and slides in one's hands. One can not strike exact and strong blow with such spear. That is why they began to supply their spears with «a simple element of other functional purpose». In this case, it was a plume, which usually made of horsehair. This plume fastened near the tip and served not only for ornament (it usually fluttering on a wind), but also for absorption and detention of the blood flowing from a wound of the enemy or animal on the shaft.
Example 20.
By the way, if change the point of view slightly and consider not a spear itself, but only its shaft, we can see four stages of development of shaft.
First three stages coincide with ones considered in the Example 19, but the fourth stage differs. In this case, «the simple element of other functional purpose» should be added not to a spear as a whole, but to a shaft only. It turned out just according to this rule: in the middle of shaft was made a special bulge (protuberance) served as a stop at accomplishment a stab.
§ 4. MAY THE FIFTH STAGE BE SUCCESSFUL?
Two considered below examples show, what occurs when thy attempt to improve the object which has already reached the fourth stage of development, within the limits of an old principle. In the other word we will consider a attempt to translate object in the fifth stage of development. Here are two Examples only, but each of them is very significant.
Example 21.
Four social-economic structures were known in the human history: primitive-communal system, slave-owning system, feudalism and capitalism.
In 1917 they attempted to build the socialism. The working principle was not changed. Therefore, it was fifth stage.
As we know, in the end of XX century the majority of the countries with communistic ideology returned to capitalism. Therefore, during several decades grandiose efforts of hundreds millions people were useless. By the way, we was explained, that in the USSR they refused from socialism mainly for the economic reasons. Meanwhile in China (which remained communistic), rates of economic development are very high. It means the matter is not in the economic reasons only.
Meanwhile in the beginning of March, 2004 the amendment settling private property was taken in the Constitution of the Peoples Republic of China. It means that China has also made a basic step towards capitalism. All these facts show that socialism may not be successful in principle.
As the second Example showing, that the fifth stage may not be successful, let us consider a bicycle. In this case the working principle is «a vehicle (mainly two-wheeled), set in motion by both one's legs».
Bicycle passed following four stages.
The first stage.
The very first bicycle represented two wheels, established on one chassis. Of cause, the first-stage bicycle was very primitive - the person sat on the chassis and simply pushes off from ground by both legs. Velocity of movement of a bicycle was equal to velocity of movement of legs of the bicyclist.
Just the opportunity to sit on the chassis transformed a skateboard into a bicycle. Really, a person sets a skateboard in motion by only one his leg, and he uses both legs riding bicycle. He may not do it standing as on a skateboard. Therefore, just using both legs turns skateboard into bicycle.
The second stage
The forward wheel was executed much largely than back one and was supplied by pedals. We can see such bicycles on old engravings. The radius of rotation of pedals was in some times less than radius of a forward wheel itself. That is why velocity of movement of a bicycle was in several times more than velocity of movement of legs of the bicyclist.
The third stage.
The bicycle with chain-drive to the back wheel represented the third stage. It was possible to ride such bicycle even more quickly and more comfortably.
The fourth stage.
The axis of the back wheel was supply with a special freewheeling muff. Now the driving wheel has had an opportunity to rotate freely at motionless pedals. As you see, they again added «a simple unit of other functional purpose» - a freewheeling muff.
Modern bicyclists have not to rotate pedals continuously, it is enough to do it periodically (for example, for acceleration), with pauses for rest.
This four-stage bicycle was invented many years ago. During all this time they tried to improve it repeatedly. However, none of them became successful on the market.
Moreover, there was even an expression «to invent a bicycle». It means «to try doing a wittingly vain and hopeless affair». This fact shows brightly that each object of human activity may have only four stages of development (within the limits of one principle).
In addition, what is interesting: from time to time, some skilled craftsmen create a very good inventions in this field. Firstly, these improvements seem very hopeful. Even many experienced businesspersons are firmly convinced that the novelties based on these inventions will be much in demand.
However it does not occur. The market does not accept fifth-stage bicycles.
It is very probable, that after very many similar attempts people have intuitively felt that there is no sense to improve a bicycle further. That is why the mentioned above Russian proverb «to invent a bicycle» is appeared.
The considered Examples show evidently that the fourth stage of development of any object is always the most effective. Experience shows (see Examples 12 - 18), that after achievement of the fourth stage of development (within the limits of one principle) the following cycle of development based on other, higher principle always begins.
On the other hand, it is not known any case when the object became successful at the fifth stage of the development. All these facts direct us on an idea, that the fifth stage of development may not be successful at all. In the same way, as the fourth stage is always the most successful, the fifth stage is always doomed to failure.
All people are arranged so, that they like to tell about successful affairs, but they prefer to hide their failures. Therefore, we can easily find many successful four-stage objects, but it is very difficult to detect any real cases confirming frailty of the fifth stage (a case with socialism - one of a few ones that they could not hide).
Here is an indirect demonstration that the fifth stage of development does not happen successful.
The statistics shows, that now only a few percent from all new created novelties goods become successful on the market. Sometimes unbelievable events occur - some very simple inventions allow creating new goods of great success, but some others (based on brilliant inventions and very hopeful) fail.
The proposed conception explains this paradox so that the fourth stage of development of any object always the most effective, and any attempts to translate object from the fourth stage of development in the fifth objectively may not be successful (even they seem very hopeful).
Because of ignorance of this law, people get in an original trap when they try to consolidate just the reached success. It seems very reasonable and natural to improve the goods (or other projects) first in that direction which has already brought success (and «has already proved» the correctness by that).
However, such strategy may be correct objectively only in very rare cases because the most successful objects (the goods, services, technologies and so on) have already reached their fourth stage of development.
When they (inspired by the reached successes) continue improving the object in the same (old) direction, they do turn it from fourth stage into fifth one. Fifth stage never may be successful or profitable.
Perhaps, it is one of the main reasons why only a few percent of all novelties are successful on the market now.
Author hopes that knowing of this law will allow inventors and executives avoid seduction to improve any object that has already reached the fourth stage of development within some working principle.
On the other hand, it is very advisable to make any object successful turning it out from third stage into fourth one using considered laws (1) - (10).
